If the recent state
elections are to anything to go by, except for Uttarkhand, all other elections
have yielded in a clear decision by the voters. Those who won the elections have
got a clear majority to form a government be it West Bengal, Tripura, Gujarat,
Uttar Pradesh or the just concluded Karnataka elections. The only thing clear
is that many people’s opinion in local areas is in sync. The factors of caste
even though cannot be ruled out in electoral results, the significance is
reducing to a large extent. Of all the caste calculations that are made by all
political parties, the minority communities are believed to be ardent supporters
of Congress party, but with the emergence of Islamic parties into the electoral
politics, the Muslim vote bank is distributed among several parties.
But with the religious
institutions directly involving and giving instructions to its followers as
whom to vote to gain strength post elections, the country is going away from
secularism. Though several parties try to become more and more secular, in
reality they are not. Neither the voter cares not the political parties, but
the only exception is the election commission, which puts a bar on the Hindu
leaders from participating in temple festivals during the implementation of the
model of code of conduct, but not for other religions and castes. The present
Election Commission has become more caste and party blind than the previous and
no commissioner nor the executives dare to search the Gandhi family members.
During every election
time, the money from the political party reaches the voter in new and
innovative ways and the creativity has to be appreciated. But the danger is
that these creative politicians with their group of followers eat more money
during their tenure as MLAs and MPs which the Voter in general doesn’t care as
he has already got his share of loot. This is called prepaid loot policy and
the businessmen get the postpaid loot. The MLAs expenses are borne by the
business houses that get the benefits after the candidate wins. Here too the
voter doesn’t care.
With all the
information at the disposal of the voter be it corruption, criminal activities
etc, there is no worry as to who to select.
In this scenario who the voter selects as their candidate is a mystery
many parties can only speculate about. The political parties have to play
different acts to get the voter confidence and make them to vote, but not many
are able to succeed. The corrupt, the criminals are going to the assemblies and
then when they loot the people cry about the rampant corruption.
While all this is happening,
one trend of the majority opinion is getting tilted by the use of media either
print or paper. The governance is taking a back seat. There is a growing clamor
for Modi for becoming PM because of developmental politics. On a closer look
Modi has managed the media well and many people outside his state and within
are happy the way he as managed the state and there is a feel good factor,
whenever he says 6crore Gujaratis. When this feel food factor is mixed with
some results there can be an overwhelming victory.
The biggest grouse of
opposition leaders is that Modi development is all nothing but a hoax and etc,
but there is no proof of it. Even though the proof exists it is not able to
destroy the feel good factor. The TMC winning in West Bengal which was a
Communist strong hold for 30years is the mistake and mismanagement of the
ruling party. The feel good factor that was maintained by the communist
government was shattered by one incident and TMC destroyed the perception and
with the help of Congress came to power. The destroyed perception has to be
replaced again with a feel good factor, which the current TMC is failing miserably.
The UP elections have
given a mandate to SP because of the failure of the feel good factor for the
simple reason that certain communities did not benefit. The SP promised some
other community favors and came to power and now are again finding it difficult
to manage the politics which are highly embedded in castes. The people can die
of hunger, but if they feel comfortable under the government and are made to
believe governments will survive. Even a good government can be bought down if
people feel bad about it. A negative feeling is what it takes to dethrone a
government. More than anything in UP, it is the bad feeling of certain
communities is the reason for the failure of BSP government to lose power.
There was a popular
perception that in 2004 the feel good factor (FGF) was with BJP, but the masses
lost the hope in BJP because of the failed promise of building a Ram Temple.
The BJP rose to power on creating a FGF of building the Ram Temple and when it
failed to achieve this in its tenure FGF was lost even though it provided a
good governance. The only alternative left was Congress which did not gain a
great majority, but with other parties helped it make the majority. In 2009 with
the good results of NDA government the economy was booming and the FGF was with
Congress and it came to power.
FGF can alone be
attributed for the decision of the majority of the people over large areas for
winning or losing of a candidate. The caste equations play a little role
because all party’s can field people belonging to different castes which would
nullify the effect. The people should find themselves to an ideology for a
certain point to focus their energies and vote for a particular candidate first
and to a party at large. This is happening as the ideology is gaining more prominence.
In the recent concluded Karnataka elections, BJP especially Modi tried to rake
the emotional feeling of Hindus by raising the cancellation of anti-cow
slaughter bill if congress comes to power and asked people for votes to BJP.
This would succeed more with a rural population, but with urban population with
many Hindus themselves eating cow meat this would not be a FGF. Modi’s charm
may have pulled the crowd to the election meetings, but the bad feeling in the people’s
mind created by the press couldn’t removed by single election meeting.
For the LokSabha
elections with may happen anytime between August 2013 and May 2014 the
corruption, national security can be that single factor that can be used. The
connect with the people has to be more aggressive as the whole press is against
the government in the Delhi and are forced to show the corruption issues to a
certain extent. The government on the other hand is trying to pass some dubious
bills to generate FGF among the many poor of this country and the opposition parties
have to try and stop these bills from passing by the corrupt government. When
it comes to governance Modi can create FGF among the many people across the
castes. Even though many Muslims hate him for being an allegedly minority
destructor, the common citizens tend to forget the truth that Congress is the
real minority destructor. When the sample size increases and the winners the
local effects will reduce and the bigger reasons alone will drive the results.
The voter who doesn’t
sit on the internet can also connect with Modi because of his developmental politics
and expects him to deliver the results. Even though Modi campaigned in
Karnataka, BJP wouldn’t come to power because there will not be Modi to deliver
the results but the media created BJP which is corrupt to the core. In the national
elections, when Modi asks for vote, many would know that if BJP wins then Modi
alone would be there deliver results and they would all benefit from good
governance and thus many urban votes will tilt towards BJP. In a election a
victory to opposition is mainly ensured by the failure of the current ruling
party to create FGF and also the display of better alternative than the ruling
party. The opposition party with no effort but only on the failure of ruling
party can never come to power and in case this happens it is because of the
failure of the ruling party.
The FGF is more
important than everything else and people at large should be able to connect
with the party and the leader should be able to connect with the masses. Modi
suits the bill and others in the party are crying over this issue and they can
destroy the FGF around Modi by projecting Advani as PM, back tracking from the
comments made, falling into the trap of Nitish, etc. If a person with some FGF
with him cannot to power then Rajiv would never have, PVN Rao would never
become PM and history has many instances of such instances. BJP has to throw
out the people who have built BJP and now expecting some benefits like Advani
and make party bigger than self. A party exists to help the people who have
voted then those who founded it. A deputy PM post enjoyed by Advani is no less
and even today many respect Advani for building BJP, but his expectation from
people for making him PM too much to ask for.
There is neither FGF
around Advani nor he could connect with the masses like he used to in the good
olden days of Ram temple movement. Advani is being played with by many people
around him from Anant Kumar, Sushma Swaraj, Yashwant Sinha etc for their own
petty means, but for the greater good of the party and also to clear the air
Advani should honorable declare that he is not for PM race at any cost. This
sacrifice by Advani will become bigger than the enacted drama by Sonia during
the 2004 and Advani will gain more respect than he would if he becomes PM. Many
voters and the party cadres want to see Modi as their leader and not Advani, if
BJP will not at least give into the FGF of its cadre what would it give to the
citizens of this country. The voter wants to see a leader in BJP, unlike in
congress everyone known irrespective of the CM it is Sonia Gandhi who decides
what to happen for which group. Hence for the voter the CM/PM candidates of
Congress doesn’t matter, but the BJP they would definitely would like to know
as it is the only democratic Party in a democratic country.
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